Growth Newsletter #253

If you're Notion users like we are at Demand Curve, you have good reason to be excited about Notion Mail's April 2025 launch. It's a sleek email client that works with your existing email accounts, and it has some pretty powerful native AI features.

But what makes this launch interesting isn't just the product itself — we know Notion creates good products — but how it fits into Notion's broader growth strategy: creating multiple entry points into their ecosystem to expand their addressable market.

This approach directly addresses a challenge that successful software companies eventually face: market saturation. While competitors battle for the same users in the project management space, Notion is opening new doors.

Market Signals Point to Saturation

Growth in the project management and personal productivity category appears to be cooling. IDC’s latest Collaboration Applications sizing shows YoY spend expanding 32.9% in 2020, 28.4% in 2021, and just 14.6% in 2022, with a preliminary 13.7% clip for 2023, according to Computerworld’s analysis.

On the ground, public filings tell the same story:

The land-grab days are ending; the hand-to-hand fight for share has begun. Additional market signals reinforce this shift:

• Traffic plateau: Google Trends, App-Store chart logs, and Similarweb ranks point the same way: interest in “Notion” hasn’t cratered—but it also hasn’t broken out since mid-2023. The growth curve is bending horizontal.
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• Competitive intensity: ClickUp, Asana, Monday.com, and Microsoft Loop are all battling for the same enterprise customers with increasingly similar feature sets.

Acquisitions Signal Notion's Expansion Strategy

Rather than simply fighting harder in this competitive landscape, Notion has methodically expanded with strategic acquisitions and product launches:

Each acquisition follows the same playbook: acquire a best-in-class tool, sunset the original service, and relaunch it as a free, independent app that complements but doesn’t require the core workspace.

This pattern reveals a deliberate strategy to create multiple on-ramps into the Notion ecosystem rather than simply enhancing their core product.

The Potential Revenue Opportunity

While Notion Mail is currently free, looking at comparable email clients reveals significant monetization potential:

Notion has already established a precedent for feature-specific pricing with Notion AI, which costs an additional $8/month per user. This suggests an emerging monetization strategy: instead of simply raising core workspace prices, Notion could charge separately for each specialized tool.

If Notion eventually charges just $5 monthly for Mail, $5 for Calendar, and maintains the $8 for AI features—all as optional add-ons to their base workspace—they could potentially 2X their average revenue per user (ARPU) through an à la carte model.

I’ve personally experienced the value proposition. Before Notion Mail, I paid $50/month for Fyxer (month-to-month Professional plan). I’ve since switched to Notion Mail—making their ecosystem stickier while saving monthly costs.

This approach opens up opportunities for Notion and strengthens their ecosystem:

1. Direct revenue potential: Standalone tools can be monetized independently at premium price points
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2. Higher ARPU opportunity: Specialized tools justify higher per-user pricing than general platforms
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3. Increased switching costs: Each additional tool raises the barrier to leaving the ecosystem
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4. Competitive displacement: Replacing point solutions reduces competition without direct confrontation

Creating Multiple On-Ramps for Different User Segments

Notion’s strategy aligns with Geoffrey Moore’s “Crossing the Chasm” framework—but with a twist. Rather than trying to push one product across the chasm, they’re building multiple bridges tailored to different user segments.

While many tech professionals have already adopted project management tools, adoption remains significantly lower outside tech hubs. Nearly a quarter of micro-SMBs still run projects on email and spreadsheets, according to Capterra’s 2021 Project-Management User Survey.

By offering free, standalone tools with immediate utility, Notion reduces the psychological barriers that typically prevent later-stage adopters from trying new productivity tools:

• Email is familiar: Even the most change-resistant users understand email
• Zero switching costs: Works with existing email addresses
• Minimal learning curve: Email UI patterns are broadly understood
• Mission-critical but contained risk: Email is essential but a client swap is relatively low-risk

The Enterprise Trojan Horse

Beyond targeting individual late adopters, Notion’s standalone tools create another growth vector: grassroots adoption within organizations already using competing project management tools.

According to Torri's SaaS Visibility and Impact Report, 69% of tech leaders cite unauthorized tools as a top security concern—indirectly confirming that employees regularly adopt helpful tools regardless of official IT policy.

This shadow IT pattern creates two advantages for Notion:

1. Foothold without displacement: Companies can use ClickUp, Asana, or Microsoft Project for project management while individual teams adopt Notion’s free tools for personal workflows.
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2. Internal champions: As more employees use Notion’s tools, the company builds advocates who can eventually influence broader adoption decisions.

The Macro Context: Changing Work Patterns

Two broader trends likely factor into Notion’s strategy too:

1. The lean-team era: Companies are producing more with fewer employees. Meta cut 21,000 positions in 2023 during its “Year of Efficiency,” yet grew revenue by 16% compared to 2022, according to CNBC.
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2. Growth in independent workers: The freelance economy continues expanding, with over 64 million Americans freelancing in 2023, up from 60 million in 2022 according to Upwork’s Freelance Forward study.

These shifts create demand for lightweight, integrated tools rather than enterprise-heavy solutions—precisely the niche Notion’s standalone apps fill.

What’s Next for Notion?

Given the pattern established, I predict Notion’s next likely move is a video conferencing or screen recording tool with AI integration.

The evidence points in this direction:

• Skiff’s technology already included encrypted video calling capabilities
• Notion’s Special Projects engineering listings mentioned “real-time collaboration and rich media” (since been removed)
• AI email tools like Fyxer already include seamless video meeting assistants that draft follow-up emails based on the meeting notes.
• Calendar (time) → Mail (communication) → Video/Meetings (presence) forms a logical progression

This would move closer to completing Notion’s daily workflow coverage, adding the synchronous layer to their growing stack and feeding Notion AI with valuable meeting transcript data.

For users, the integration would create a compelling workflow: schedule a meeting in Calendar, join via Notion’s video tool, capture AI notes, and link everything to your workspace—all within one ecosystem.

I'd love a Loom-esque asynchronous video recording tool within Notion too. 😉

Takeaways for Companies in Maturing Markets

Notion’s strategy offers valuable lessons for any company facing growth plateaus:

1. Add doors, not just features: When direct competition intensifies, create new entry points that target adjacent, untapped audiences rather than just adding features to your core product.
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2. Build standalone value first, integration second: Ensure each new tool delivers immediate value independently before pushing ecosystem benefits. This lowers acquisition barriers while creating multiple monetization opportunities.
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3. Price like a specialist when possible: Specialized tools can often command higher per-seat prices than general platforms. Consider pricing standalone tools separately to increase overall ARPU.
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4. Recognize where your market sits on the adoption curve: Products designed for early adopters don’t always resonate with the late majority. Different segments require different entry points and value propositions.

The Bottom Line

For founders and growth leaders, the key takeaway is that sometimes the most effective strategy isn’t competing harder for the same customers—it’s finding creative ways to expand your addressable market while creating new monetization opportunities.

What do you think of Notion’s strategy? Would your business benefit from a similar approach? Reply to this email with your thoughts—I read every response.